Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field. It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. The first of nine handicaps and I’ll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly. There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.
Queen Mother Champion Chase – Marlborough’s preview and tips
So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book. The string of numbers to the left of each horse’s name are the form figures and they are places they have finished in their most recent races, reading from left to right with regards to their latest position. So if a horse has figures of , it would have won its last three races but finished sixth the time before. I’ve always been a big believer that it’s the best horse who wins the race and not necessarily the best trainer or jockey, but that’s a debate that continues to run.
Roksana – Stayers’ Hurdle – 7/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 8/1 Sky/Fred (NRNB)
So we can get down to business, the business of this post being to review current trainer form for the big guns heading into Cheltenham Festival 2021. A Plus Tard has been exposed a couple of times in Festival G1 company now and is short enough for all that he’s hugely talented. Galvin may still be improving but 5/1 readily acknowledges that.
- Eight of the years would have turned a profit, seven a loss.
- It is worth further noting that there were only four Irish runners in the field of twelve.
- He was only beaten half a length at Catterick and is just 1lb higher so should run his race.
Sky Bet Value Bet Price Guarantee
Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record. The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4. My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc.
- As with all the reports, you can set parameters at the top to filter the day’s qualifiers.
- If you’re John (or Thady) Gosden or Charlie Appleby, you take the free hits early doors and then move up in search of the three horses in your yard who can legitimately contest for the Guineas or Derby etc.
- There is currently little value in the early markets for this tight little handicap.
- Our horse racing racecards service is aimed to help you, the punter.
- He’s a dual winner from four starts on all-weather and, in between those wins, he again showed good acceleration to close from 3 3/4 lengths behind to a length behind at the line in another similarly run race.
When is the Breeders’ Cup? Del Mar dates, races and post times for 2024
For an extended edge at the bookies, be sure to brush up on the bestCheltenham Festival betting offerswith Betting.co.uk. A good juvenile a couple of seasons ago and third to Aucunrisque in last year’s Betfair Hurdle off 133, I don’t think he’s done with yet in these major handicap races and is definitely being overlooked on this occasion. Sorry to ram this home, but if you’re a beginner not prepared to spend a bit of time on study you’re always going to be a beginner. If you get as much fun as I do from studying form, watching past races and attempting to solve each puzzle, it won’t seem like work at all.
Cheltenham Festival Trainer Form Conclusions
If they aren’t currently available, please check back later; they are generally available around 16 hours before the meeting starts. These individuals or organisations have extensive knowledge and experience in horse racing and share their insights and predictions with the public. Making prudent decisions based on a combination of research, intuition, and rational thinking is pivotal in navigating the unpredictable nature of horse racing.
Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Past Winners
Faivoir was pulled-up that day and has already proved the form all wrong with a good second behind Gin Coco, while the well-held eighth Rare Middleton has since won by five lengths doing handstands off just 2lb lower at Doncaster. With 59 racecourses in Britain and 26 in Ireland, you’re almost certainly not far away from a local track, and tickets for regular meetings (when spectators are allowed) can often be as low as £10. They are amazing, beautiful, unpredictable and so clever. They are lean, mean, powerful machines, athletes that can get to 60 kilometres an hour from a standing start in just five strides. We have built the fastest cars and bikes but the racehorse is pure nature. Every horse has his or her own character and personality.
Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 1 👇🏼
- Nicky Henderson has Jingko Blue, three times a runner and twice a winner to date.
- Contributing to creating and maintaining this Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren.
- She’s usually very consistent but never showed up at Yarmouth last time.
- But there’s a ton of back class in the field this time headed by Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, and Savills and National Hunt Chase winner Galvin.
- Those unaccessorized won 32 handicap chases from 786 runners (4.07%, the lowest in the sample).
They collectively won 32 of the 39 qualifying races, for a profit of 80 points at SP, and a tasty 165 points at BSP. Only five of the 102 horses sent off shorter than 9/1 prevailed, for a 66 point loss at SP (60 points at BSP). Chuck out horses aged nine and above, and be unforgiving with those aged seven and eight.
Friday’s Horse Racing Tips
It does seem a race where all of the preceding trials have been run on different ground and/or under very different pace scenarios. There will be lots of to and fro in the six weeks from now until the Cheltenham Festival gets underway. A few positions on shorties at fancier prices, for all that the spectre of our picks winning but not by far enough looms, may help to wile the worst of these remaining Covid days. Put The Kettle On jumped poorly under Sean Flanagan when slammed by CPS and Notebook last time but can be expected to improve both for a return to Cheltenham and the presumed return of Aidan Coleman to the saddle. In that light, she’s of minor interest at 14/1 each way and also worth at least a second glance when the ‘without the favourite’ market emerges. But it is hard to see her turning tables with her last day vanquisher.
‘Worst injury in sport’ left players stunned as rugby hard man played on with torn scrotum
Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing. I had La Breuil in at evens favourite, the impressive winner touched 2/1 before returning an SP of 15/8. Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value. The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about.
Asfoora joins Choisir (2003), Takeover Target (2006), Miss Andretti (2007), Scenic Blast (2009) and Nature Strip (2022) on the Australian roll of honour in what was formerly the King’s Stand Stakes. The five-year-old had made it to the track just twice since his fast-finishing fourth in the St James’s Palace Stakes two years ago, but he served notice there may still be a big prize on his horizon with a pleasing performance. “The Wolferton was the alternative but it’s on the round course and you need a lot more racing luck on there. As Docklands carries the colours of Australian-based owners OTI Racing, he is set for a trip to the southern hemisphere later in the year. “That was a really good run, it’s just a shame to miss out. He deserved it and we really thought he had a chance,” said Turner.
Indefatigable looks like getting her optimal conditions for the first time in a while and may be over-priced for hail mary each way players. Mrs Milner, like Heaven Help Us, was a handicap hurdle winner at last year’s Festival, her score coming in the three mile Pertemps Final. This is a different test, more about speed than stamina, though she had the gears to win a couple of lower grade two mile hurdles earlier in her career. Related, and perhaps more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race – all of them short – were turned over. In spite of the small field the Supreme remains a competitive race with five horses at single figure prices. They are headed by inmates of the unofficial Prestbury Cup team captains Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and, more pertinently, their A and B players, Constitution Hill and Jonbon (NJH) and Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit (WPM).
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV)
Likely to be quick, as forward-goers like High Definition and Rare Edition collide with an ocean of adrenaline coursing through the jockeys’ veins for the first rising tape of the week. The 2023 Cheltenham Festival is here, and it’s going to be a belter! 28 races, almost all of them head-scratching puzzles in terms wagering possibilities…
Paul Kealy’s five-step guide to finding a winner
Well, why aren’t they running in that race then, I hear (one of) you cry! The answer, of course, is trajectory; and that is the byword for attempting to solve this wagering puzzle. Cast back to 2020, and a six-year-old Epatante was winning the Blue Riband while forty minutes later Honeysuckle, also six, was winning this race.
Other Principal races at Ayr racecourse
There are many factors to consider when looking for racing tips. He was much improved at Kempton last time when rattling home and he’s had a little nudge down the weights. The only place to get Templegate’s tips first – and at the best prices – is by joining Sun Racing’s brilliant Members Enclosure.
30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)
Sir Mark Prescott celebrated his first Royal Ascot winner since Pivotal in 1996 when Pledgeofallegiance saw off all-comers to win the Ascot Stakes. We did all the donkey work, it was tremendous really and I’m delighted for the horse and delighted for Callum (Rodriguez) and delighted for these guys who have put their money into it – it’s great to have syndicates like this. Trainer Mick Appleby was rightly pleased Bolts Up Daily with the performance of Big Evs in defeat and will now look to campaign his stable star on more speed favouring tracks, like Del Mar in November. “It’s such a gamble bringing her over and it is such an expensive trip. We’re getting a bit of help from Ascot, but it is still expensive and the owner is funding it. “Dropping in with plenty of runners is what he needs and he hasn’t had that yet this year.
- Of course, he’s a novice and the fences have to be jumped, so that’s a possible issue.
- In comparison Fly Camp, also making his handicap debut, looks on a high mark on form achieved.
- It’s worth recalling that she was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April, and it’s typical of Lucinda Russell’s horses to only show their very best form in the spring.
- Much has been made of the wind operation that prevented him returning to racecourse action until Newbury last month, but it was a minor procedure that he underwent.
- Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year.
- The furlong shorter trip compared with the Irish Arkle might be a benefit to Blue Lord, whose credentials look most apparent of the Irish runners even though the eye was naturally drawn to Riviere d’Etel’s unlucky runner up effort there.
- While she’s the clear favourite and the most likely winner, stepping up to 2m 4f poses a question mark on her stamina.
- The more I look at the Supreme, the more I feel like Mighty Potter should get a lovely lead into the business end and will get the end-to-end gallop that suits him best.
Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase Micro System
I am definitely not advocating that this system is one that punters should use ‘blind’ at the 2023 festival, but it may offer a potential starting point, to at least give you a pool of runners to consider. Also, for readers with little time to study form, I am confident there are plenty of systems around that are less likely to produce a profit at the Festival than this one. The Evens to 9/4 bracket has proved the most profitable in ROI terms and, taking shorter priced runners as a whole, the market has been a pretty good guide. Combining all runners priced 6/1 or shorter we have seen 182 winners from 807 (SR 22.6%) for a small BSP loss of £7.42 (ROI –0.9%). LH – Feel like the Warwick race has been overplayed in terms of Jonbon form. Calico (2nd there) showed he’d improved when winning next time.
Four of them, though, were going better than the labouring evens-favourite in fifth and an upset on the scale of last year’s looked on the cards. Learn more about Steve’s work by applying for your free information pack including full results and long term statistical analysis by clicking here. Second feature from Steve analysing handicaps and ratings following his insight into his work as a professional backer.
Tom Queally’s mount still has the potential for better and is worth another go at this marathon trip. Reshoun returned to winning form at Newbury 13 days ago and is feared, along with stablemate Hydroplane and last year’s runner-up Withhold. Fourteen jump fixtures for us in the schedule for the week with a wide geographic spread. We start the week in Scotland with an extended seven race card at Ayr. Following quite a long spell of rain leading up to the meeting the going has now eased to Good to Soft.
Decent day of racing ahead with three Grade 2, one Grade 3 and a listed races from Newbury and Warwick this afternoon. Plus we have Uttoxeter who are subject to a third inspection. With form horses Coo Star Sivola and Global Stage having disappointed on their latest starts – a difficult race to assess. Theatre Guide is expected to go well in a race he won last year.
This is a ‘hands and heels’ handicap hurdle for amateurs and conditionals – whips not to be used. Not the sort of race I would get too seriously involved with. Only Sir Note and Lemon’s Gent come into this race in form and both look beatable.
